Sanders’ reversal in fortune — the latest Marquette Law School poll shows Sanders trailing Joe Biden by nearly 30 points — comes after a consolidation of Democratic support behind Biden. It’s the same dynamic that lifted the former vice president to victory across 14 states on Super Tuesday then again in a handful of big states that followed.
The problem isn’t so much that Sanders’ Wisconsin support has crumbled, but rather that Biden’s support has quadrupled since February, said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll.
Should the predictions play out, the Vermont senator would fall even further behind in the hunt for delegates, all but snuffing out the already dim prospect that Sanders could still mount a comeback. Biden’s already strong position, meanwhile, would be bolstered — a blowout win in a battleground state that both parties agree is pivotal to a general election win would solidify his status as presumptive Democratic nominee.
Yet the coronavirus crisis backdrop has added an unprecedented level of chaos and uncertainty to the first big-state primary in three weeks. The momentum Biden built through March has been halted by the pandemic. But Sanders has also hit a wall — the massive crowds and organization that buoyed Sanders in 2016 have been sidelined. An outpouring of young voters helped propel Sanders in the waning days of the 2016 Wisconsin primary but there is a cloud over their expected turnout Tuesday.
“With universities moving to online teaching, we’re very uncertain what the turnout will be among younger voters. We can’t even be certain that they’re living in their college towns. For them, the hurdle of getting an absentee ballot and processing it is only an added layer,” Franklin said. “I’m confident that Biden has really surged and consolidated support, that’s clear in our data.”
While Franklin cautioned that the numbers could still wildly fluctuate given the conditions, a thrashing in Wisconsin could represent a devastating result for Sanders in a state that holds symbolic significance to his supporters. Sanders soared to victory in 2016 over Hillary Clinton before she went on to lose the state to Donald Trump by the narrowest of margins — an outcome that many Sanders supporters insist would have been different had Sanders been the Democratic nominee.
“Joe Biden isn’t Hillary Clinton. And 2020 isn’t 2016,” said Mike Tate, the state’s former Democratic Party chairman. “Even with all the problems, I don’t see any reason to believe that Biden won’t do well here. There’s no magic coalition of people here, who didn’t exist in other states, that will show up and knock Biden down. If you look at the states Biden won in March, he’s winning former Bernie voters, too. I have no reason to think Wisconsin will be that different.”
In addition to Biden’s strong African American support, he’s pulling more white working-class voters and, more specifically, union and union-aligned households, according to the Marquette poll findings. Biden has already beaten Sanders in six states the Vermont senator won in 2016 — including blowout victories in the neighboring states of Michigan and Minnesota.
Biden also easily won the bordering state of Illinois, which Sanders nearly carried in 2016. The only nearby state where Sanders defeated Biden was Iowa, the first state to vote this year in what turned out to be a low-turnout caucus.
Many Wisconsin Democrats are reluctant to discuss the political dynamics of the primary, saying it seemed almost trivial at a time when state and local officials were grappling with how exactly to even conduct a primary amid the pandemic.
Wisconsin is the only state out of the 11 that originally had contests scheduled for April that is still moving forward with its Tuesday election, despite pleas from progressive groups, mayors and clerks to delay in-person voting to prevent health risks and widespread staffing shortages. Sanders has called for Wisconsin to delay its primary; Biden has not.
Amid the volatility, Democrats say there’s little to no presence from either campaign.
“It doesn’t feel like we’re in the middle of a presidential campaign here,” said state Democratic Party Chairman Ben Wikler. “People are trying to figure out how to get groceries safely and checking their mail for absentee ballots.”
While there’s some campaign activity over text messaging and digital organizing, campaigning and organizational efforts have been minimal, Democrats say.
“They’re very skeletal campaigns out here at the moment,” Guarasci said. “As far as I’ve seen, there’s not any television being run by either campaign. You’re not seeing these big megawatt fights for the state at the moment. It seems like that’s benefiting Biden.”
“It is like radio silence on the presidential primary right now,” Racine Mayor Cory Mason said. “If we weren’t in the middle of a pandemic, we’d see political rallies, large crowds of people gathering. … It makes sense to me that people’s consciousness is being eclipsed right now by coronavirus. It’s coronavirus and toilet paper and do I have enough food and when can I go back to work.”
The most activity local officials say they’ve seen is the public support both Sanders and Biden have offered for two education referendums on the ballot.
Angela Lang, director of Milwaukee-based Black Leaders Organizing for Communities, said she thinks the edge goes to Biden, but the de facto voter suppression from the coronavirus is disproportionately affecting black voters — a key part of the former vice president’s base. She also pointed to the devotion of Sanders’ backers. “There are strong Sanders supporters saying, ‘Look, the primary’s not over. Let’s have our voices heard,’” she said.
“Look, anything could go with this election,” Lang cautioned. “It’s been turned on its head.”
Source: politico.com
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