New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has received the lion’s share of attention, as his informative and emotive press conferences have made him an overnight national political star, albeit halfway through his third term. But his record in responding to the crisis is more complicated than the sheen lets on: his coronavirus containment policies were not the most aggressive in the country, and did not prevent catastrophe. He hesitated to close all schools statewide even as other states began to do so, and resisted a statewide stay-at-home order for a few days before relenting.
So, if not Cuomo, then who? I see six governors who are poised to break out, and another six who risk serious damage to their political futures.
The Gubernatorial Breakouts
1. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R)
Perhaps no single governor has done more to put the nation on a war footing in the fight against coronavirus than DeWine, whose actions have contributed to Ohio’s relatively modest number of cases, with a per capita infection rate currently ranked 27th out of 50 states.
On March 12, even though Ohio had yet to suffer a major outbreak of Covid-19, DeWine called for the statewide closure of public schools—the first governor in the nation to do so, forcing most of his fellow governors to recognize they had to follow suit, and fast. Likewise, DeWine set the pace on delaying primary elections, even if his snubbing of an initial court order was constitutionally questionable.
The lifelong Republican public servant has been calm, sober and data-driven. He has not only been uninterested in emulating Donald Trump’s style, he has been willing to defy Trump’s edicts. When Trump tried to set a goal for reopening the economy by Easter, DeWine gently but firmly pushed back, “When people are dying, when people don’t feel safe, the economy is not gonna come back.”
At 73 years old, DeWine is probably not going to ascend to higher office after this is all over. But if he has any interest in steering the post-Trump Republican Party away from Trumpism, he now has a much bigger national platform on which to do so.
2. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D)
Cuomo’s proximity to New York City — the media capital of America — has shifted much of the spotlight away from the other hungrily ambitious governor of a big blue state. But on March 19, Newsom was the first governor in America to issue a statewide order to shutter businesses and keep people at home. (Newsom had help when, three days earlier, public health officials in six Bay Area counties went first and issued a joint stay-at-home order.)
The strong action appears to be bending the curve. California’s number of Covid-19 confirmed cases and deaths is rising slower than in hard-hit states like New York, New Jersey, Louisiana and Michigan. (The death number may be a better indicator of spread than the confirmed cases number, because testing has been so poorly administered.)
National media outlets are starting to notice. Even Trump, who has repeatedly tangled with Newsom over the past three years, conceded this week that California has done a “good job.” But both Newsom and Trump acknowledge that California may still be facing a surge of cases, and that could strain its hospital system. Newsom is scrambling to fortify the system with additional hospital beds on ships and convention centers, and with an effort to enlist medical retirees and students in joining an expanded health care workforce.
Whether he succeeds may ultimately determine if Newsom is heralded as a skilled administrator who might warrant a promotion to the presidency someday.
3. Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D)
Coming into 2020, Inslee had already burnished his national reputation by running for president as a visionary leader on climate change. Now, after his state identified the first American case of Covid-19, and suffered the first cluster of nursing home deaths, Inslee is adding “crisis manager” to his résumé.
After being shown data in early March that argued for severe social distancing, Inslee immediately moved to ban large gatherings and prepared the public for more stringent measures. The quick action has paid off: Washington’s curve of coronavirus deaths is flatter than any other state with more than 50 deaths.
At the same time, Inslee has been a public thorn in Trump’s side. On February 27, Inslee provoked the president by recounting on Twitter a pointed exchange he had with Vice President Mike Pence: “I told him our work would be more successful if the Trump administration stuck to the science and told the truth,” Inslee said. Trump has responded with insults, calling Inslee a “snake,” and publicly encouraging Pence not to call him anymore.
Instigating a spat with the president during a national crisis can run the risk of making a governor look petty and political. But that risk is negated if you can still deliver results, which Inslee has done. Further, most Democrats don’t mind seeing Inslee take Trump to task, and Inslee doesn’t have to worry about swing voters right now. Either he is strengthening his ability to win a third gubernatorial term, or he is cannily positioning himself for a Cabinet post in a potential Biden administration.
4. Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R)
Like DeWine, Hogan is a Republican governor who has acted aggressively to contain the virus. Unlike DeWine, Hogan is more willing to criticize the White House.
When asked on CNN last week if Maryland’s social distancing policies matched Trump’s suggestion that it would soon be time to ease up, Hogan was pointed: “They don’t really match. Quite frankly, some of the messaging is pretty confusing. And I think it’s not just that it doesn’t match with what we’re doing here in Maryland, some of the messaging coming out of the administration doesn’t match.”
On Monday, Hogan penned a bipartisan Washington Post op-ed with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, listing all the ways “Washington” and “the federal government” haven’t sufficiently helped the nation’s governors. And on Tuesday, when asked by NPR whether Trump was “correct when he suggested recently that states have enough testing kits,” Hogan was blunt: “That’s just not true.”
As governor of a deep blue state, Hogan has more political leeway than DeWine to complain about the president’s handling of the pandemic. But Hogan, who is term-limited, has flashed grand ambitions, flirting last year with a primary challenge to Trump. He concluded, accurately, he had no path to success and passed. But if, by 2024, some GOP-ers rediscover the value of managerial competence, and he continues to limit the spread of coronavirus in his state, Hogan will have distinguished himself as a different kind of Republican.
5. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D)
Perhaps no governor has gotten under Trump’s skin more than Whitmer, who has repeatedly criticized the administration’s handling of the pandemic. He has snidely referred to her as “the woman in Michigan” and “Gretchen ‘Half’ Whitmer,” and like Inslee, suggested Pence should not call her. She has responded in kind on her Twitter feed and in TV interviews.
For the moment, Whitmer has gotten the better out of their tussle. A poll taken in mid-March, in the midst of the initial clash between the governor and the president, showed Whitmer with a 60 percent approval rating, and Trump at only 45 percent. Michigan Republicans have been warning Trump to tone it down.
But Whitmer also appears aware she should go only so far. In recent days, as Detroit hospitals are suffering from strain, she has toned it down. She praised the White House and the Federal Emergency Management Agency for shipments of masks and ventilators. She had civil phone calls with Trump and Pence. As New York Times reporter Annie Karni suggested, Whitmer’s gender might have something to do with Trump’s particularly harsh tone. But perhaps another major factor is that Michigan is a major Electoral College prize — one Trump barely won in 2016. As Covid-19 cases explode in Detroit, if Whitmer successfully pins the blame on Trump, that could help flip the state back to blue in November. But if Trump can successfully tag her for blame-shifting while the pandemic raged, that could cripple Whitmer’s ability to deliver the state to Joe Biden.
In the meantime, Whitmer has been getting more buzz as Biden’s potential running mate (which Biden stirred himself Tuesday night on MSNBC). After lowering the temperature of her presidential fight, but with the state’s caseload rising quickly, she now has to assure her constituents she is doing the best she can with what resources are available.
6. Puerto Rico Gov. Wanda Vazquez (New Progressive Party)
On the mainland, California was the first state to shut down nonessential businesses and largely keep people in their homes. But in Puerto Rico, Vazquez moved four days earlier, shutting down businesses, schools and beaches; ordering people inside and installing a nighttime curfew.
With Puerto Rico’s health care infrastructure still fragile in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, the territory is acutely vulnerable to a pandemic. (In early January, a 13-year-old in Vieques with flu-like symptoms died in part because the lone hospital on the island has been shuttered since Maria.) So Vazquez had every incentive to move quickly and boldly.
She’s also in a fragile political state. She ascended to her position after evidence of corruption forced out Ricardo Rosselló, the last elected governor. But some accused her, while serving as secretary of justice, of failing to properly investigate Rosselló. In January, she suffered another scandal when, after a series of earthquakes, unused emergency supplies were discovered in a warehouse. She now faces a close race in her party’s primary to earn a nomination for a full term later this year.
According to the most recent data, Puerto Rico has a lower rate of infection than any of the 50 states. That may be partly because Puerto Rico has a lower rate of testing than almost every state. But Vazquez’s swift and sweeping action on social distancing likely is helping to prevent a worst-case scenario — and could well help her keep her job.
The Gubernatorial Busts
1. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)
DeSantis is one of Trump’s favorite governors and a potential 2024 presidential prospect. But he has made a bad first impression on the rest of the country by failing to fully shut down Florida’s beaches before or after they were overrun with partiers on spring break, many of whom then traveled home to locations throughout the United States.
He also resisted making a statewide stay-at-home order until finally relenting on Wednesday — in the wake of intense pressure from Florida Democrats, and televised comments Wednesday morning by the surgeon general urging all governors to get their residents to stay at home. Before that point, his seemingly toughest measure was issuing a quarantine for travelers coming from the New York City tri-state area or Louisiana, but the focus on hot spots ignores all the community spread inside Florida and in other states. Florida already has nearly 7,000 confirmed cases, ranking it 17th among the states on a per capita basis.
Earlier, DeSantis justified eschewing broader measures. “We’re also in a situation where we have counties who have no community spread,” he said on March 19. “We have some counties that don’t have a single positive test yet.” But everything we have experienced strongly suggests you don’t want to wait until you have community spread before taking strong action.
DeSantis may still be helped by Trump, who may be giving Florida preferential treatment. According to the Washington Post, other governors have had difficulty getting supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile, but not DeSantis. And Trump has been influenced by DeSantis’ argument that some social distancing measures are too harmful to the economy. The Post quoted an anonymous White House official, who explained, “The president knows Florida is so important for his reelection, so when DeSantis says that, it means a lot. He pays close attention to what Florida wants.”
For now, DeSantis remains on the GOP’s 2024 shortlist. But if DeSantis encourages Trump to make bad decisions, and if Florida is getting supplies while other states scrounge, the governor’s ties to the president may become a serious liability for his own future prospects.
2. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R)
Aside from its next-door neighbor Louisiana, Mississippi is the Southern state with the most confirmed Covid-19 cases on a per capita basis. Yet Reeves has made a hash out of the response.
As Mississippi’s localities began issuing stay-at-home edicts, Reeves issued his own order on March 24, broadly defining what business and social activity is “essential” — including religious services — and declared any order from any other “governing body” which conflicts with the state order to be “suspended and unenforceable.” Two days later, under pressure, he tried to clarify that the state order provided only a “floor,” which counties and cities could surpass, but confusingly added that “no order can keep those essential services from going on.” Mississippi mayors have been confused and have interpreted the governor differently.
Reeves had resisted a statewide stay-at-home order on ideological grounds, insisting that “Mississippi’s never going to be China. Mississippi’s never going to be North Korea.” Yet as the virus spreads, Reeves may find himself dragged into a more expansive response.
On Tuesday, Reeves issued his first stay-at-home order, but in just one county, Lauderdale, where a nursing home has suffered an outbreak. “The businesses in Lauderdale County are simply losing customers to surrounding counties and BTW covid doesn’t stop at the county line,” tweeted the mayor of Tupelo, which is in Lee County.
On Wednesday, Reeves issued a stay-at-home order that encompasses the whole state — but which doesn’t take effect for another two days. If Mississippi’s spread becomes severe, Reeves’ haphazard response will come back to haunt him.
3. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R)
On March 14, Stitt tweeted a picture of his family eating at a restaurant, as if he deserved an award for defying the coronavirus panic. “It’s packed tonight!” he enthusiastically shared, but facing blowback, later deleted the post.
The next day, Stitt declared a state of emergency. Then, the day after that, the governor’s spokesman said, “the governor will continue to take his family out to dinner and to the grocery store without living in fear, and encourages Oklahomans to do the same.” Stitt still has not issued a statewide stay-at-home order. In the absence of one, major Oklahoma cities have imposed their own over the past few days.
Two weeks later, Oklahoma’s rate of infection is intensifying, and testing is minimal. Stitt is not the only governor who has hesitated to implement stiff restrictions, but he may become a case study of the pitfalls of glib social media use in a time of crisis.
4. Hawaii Gov. David Ige (D)
You may remember Ige as the governor who, for 17 minutes in 2018, couldn’t correct a false warning of an incoming ballistic missile because he didn’t know his Twitter password.
Earlier this month, Ige tapped his Lieutenant Governor Josh Green to play a key role in the state’s response to coronavirus. Green is an emergency room doctor, so his calls for strict travel restrictions and quarantines on arrivals carried great weight. But once Green publicly pushed for strong measures, Ige cut him out of the loop, instructing Cabinet officials not to consult with Green, and keeping Green out of his press conferences.
Hawaii faced an influx of “crisis tourists” looking to ride out the pandemic in paradise. But as the governor of a tourism-dependent state, Ige hesitated to act. On March 19, the state House speaker, fellow Democrat Scott Saiki, upbraided Ige in a letter, describing the administration’s response as “utterly chaotic,” causing “mass confusion among the public.”
Ige has now made peace with Green, and recently ordered a 14-day quarantine for arrivals — though there was a five-day gap between the announcement and the implementation. A stay-at-home order has been issued, though with exceptions for swimming and surfing. Ige better hope those steps are enough.
5. Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)
Ige isn’t the only governor taking heat from his No. 2. Ivey is being shown up by her lieutenant governor, Will Ainsworth.
On March 25, Ainsworth, who serves on Ivey’s coronavirus task force, wrote a letter to the panel’s other members. After some perfunctory pleasantries, he lit into them: “A tsunami of hospital patients is likely to fall upon Alabama in the not too distant future, and it is my opinion that this task force and the state are not taking a realistic view of the numbers or adequately preparing for what awaits us.”
The day after, Ivey sounded a completely different note at a press conference, when she dismissed the idea of a statewide stay-at-home order. “Y’all, we are not Louisiana, we are not New York sate, we are not California,” she said. (Washington Post data journalist Philip Bump warned Ivey that Alabama’s caseload was growing faster than California’s.)
Then, at a press conference one day after that, Ivey dumped on Ainsworth, saying he was “not helpful” in “raising challenges and criticism and issues we are aware of, and offering no solutions and showing no willingness to work with the task force and the team willing to fix it.” (Ainsworth’s letter did, in fact, offer solutions regarding health care capacity.)
Ivey, who is not yet term-limited, would turn 78 before the 2022 election. By that time, Ainsworth, who won a separate election for lieutenant governor and did not run with Ivey on a ticket, would be 41, and well-positioned to move into the governor’s mansion. Perhaps Ivey will just want to retire by 2022. But if she does plan on seeking reelection, she now has to worry about a possible primary challenger who has successfully separated himself from her questionable pandemic response.
6. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice (R)
Justice is a billionaire political neophyte who won the 2016 gubernatorial election as a Democrat, then, in 2017, switched to become a Republican and a Trump ally. His lack of experience in crisis management has been glaringly obvious from his discordant statements and actions.
On March 16, he was preaching defiance. “For crying out loud, go to the grocery stores,” Jutice said. “If you want to go to Bob Evans and eat, go to Bob Evans and eat.” Then, the very next day, he shut down dine-in eating at the state’s restaurants.
The following Saturday, Justice gave a disjointed address which, according to the Associated Press, featured “jumbled sets of numbers that puzzled viewers in their randomness.” He warned of dire consequences, but neglected to issue a stay-at-home order. “Governor Urges Action, Takes None,” read a headline in the Charleston Gazette-Mail the next day. Later that week, Justice finally announced a stay-at-home order.
This wobbly performance is coming at the worst possible time for Justice politically, because he faces a contested party primary for the gubernatorial nomination this spring. (Justice just pushed back the primary from May 12 to June 9.) Justice faces six primary opponents, with the most spirited challenge coming from Justice’s former Commerce secretary, Woody Thrasher. Justice has been a heavy favorite to date, but a mismanaged crisis can change poll numbers very fast.
Source: politico.com
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