Democrats’ path to a Senate majority after the 2020 elections got a little wider on Wednesday.
Sen. Johnny Isakson’s (R-Ga.) announcement that he will resign later this year due to health problems puts Republicans on defense, with another competitive seat on the ballot in an emerging swing state.
Democrats need to flip three states to win back the Senate if they also capture the White House. Only two Republicans are up in states President Donald Trump lost in 2016 — Colorado and Maine — meaning Democrats will have to win in red states to control the chamber.
Republicans now have to defend two seats in Georgia — which is also likely to be competitive in the presidential race — increasing the attention and money required to hold their grip on the rapidly shifting state.
Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Georgia in two decades, and the party had already struggled to recruit top-tier talent to the race after Stacey Abrams passed on running earlier this year. Abrams said Wednesday she won’t run in a special election, either. But new Democrats could consider jumping in to run in the special election, and if the party is able to put the state in play, it gives them a two-for-one opportunity.
Nikema Williams, the chair of the state Democratic party, said it has “never been clearer that the path for Democratic victory runs through Georgia.
“We are the battleground state, and Georgia Democrats are ready to fight and deliver both the Senate and the presidency for Democrats across the country in 2020,” Williams said.
Republicans are confident they will be able to hold Isakson’s seat, alongside that of Sen. David Perdue, who is running for a second term. They point out that Abrams lost the 2018 gubernatorial race in a high-turnout contest — and that Democrats have not attracted top recruits to the first race, let alone to a second.
“Dems were having a hard enough time figuring out who they were going to get behind” against Perdue, said John Watson, a former state GOP chairman. “Now they have the double problem of figuring out two races.”
The developments in Georgia came alongside other significant shifts in Senate contests in recent weeks. National Democrats recruited former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper to drop out of the presidential contest and enter the crowded race to face GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, which Democrats say increased their chances in a must-win state. But the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s endorsement of Hickenlooper has infuriated progressives and led to vocal backlash from the other candidates.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally got a primary challenge Wednesday from a wealthy businessman, which could complicate her path against Democrat Mark Kelly, another top party recruit.
Republicans acknowledge that the pending Georgia vacancy is an unwelcome development, but they argue that it was a state they were already confident they could hold. Some found a silver lining in the effect it would have on the rest of the map.
Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor, said he thinks the special election strengthens Perdue’s reelection bid and makes the state that much more expensive for Democrats in a contest that was already an uphill battle.
“This will ultimately reduce the resources Democrats have in Arizona, Maine, North Carolina and Colorado down the stretch as they strive for two slightly-out-of-reach Senate seats in Georgia,” Eberhart said.
A Republican strategist working on Senate races, however, acknowledged that a second race in Georgia would likely drain the GOP’s coffers, as well. “It’s just another line item in the budget, frankly. That’s the main concern,” the strategist said.
Zac McCrary, a veteran Democratic pollster who works on Senate races, said winning an open seat is easier than ousting an incumbent, and said the race would immediately be among the top half-dozen party targets.
“I think it expands the playing field that has been relatively thin so far,” McCrary said. “This gives Democrats a wider path to retaking the majority.”
It’s unclear who will ultimately be in the race on either side. Several Republicans are considered candidates for the appointment after Isakson departs at the end of the year: Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan; state Attorney General Chris Carr; and Reps. Doug Collins and Tom Graves.
On the Democratic side, operatives listed several potential contenders, including Michelle Nunn, who lost to Perdue in 2014; Jason Carter, who lost the race for governor that year; and Rep. Lucy McBath, who flipped a suburban House district last year.
Asked Wednesday if he would consider running for Senate, Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter, said, „I think anybody would think about it.“
Three candidates are already running for Senate against Perdue: former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson, Clarkston Mayor Ted Terry and businesswoman Sarah Riggs Amico, who lost the race for lieutenant governor last year and announced her campaign earlier this week. All three confirmed they plan on staying in the race against Perdue.
One other potential candidate is Jon Ossoff, who lost an expensive and closely watched special election for Congress in the Atlanta suburbs in 2017. Ossof is leaning towards running, according to a person who has spoken with him and was granted anonymity to share private conversations. This week’s developments did not change his timeline but did open up the question of which seat he would run for.
Ossoff has already spoken with potential campaign managers and has had discussions with veteran pollster Fred Yang about working for his potential campaign, according to multiple Democrats familiar with the conversations. Yang did not return an email requesting comment.
Democrats uniformly considered the vacancy a positive for their chances to win back the chamber, pointing to changing political winds in Georgia. While Republicans swept the statewide races in 2018, their winning margins over Democrats were narrow. And Democrats won the Atlanta-area House seat where Ossoff had come up short the year before, another sign of Trump-era GOP weakness in the suburbs.
