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Why Democrats say they might not vote to convict Trump

Polls on impeachment show a sharp partisan divide on whether Trump should be removed from office for pressuring the Ukrainian government to investigate his political rivals. But Senate Democrats’ focus on securing a fair process for the trial appears to be popular, which can only be helped by their claims of neutrality.

New Friday polling shared early with POLITICO by Ipsos and FiveThirtyEight.com suggests the public is more responsive to Democratic calls for testimony from key witnesses. In the survey, 57 percent of respondents want the Senate trial to feature new witnesses and 86 percent think senators should try to be impartial jurors.

The idea of impartial senators is laughable to many Republicans, who note presidential candidates like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have called for Trump’s removal. And many in the GOP have done little to hide their plans to exonerate the president in “total coordination” with the White House, as McConnell (R-Ky.) put it.

“There’s not one impartial juror of the 100 in the Senate,” said Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.). “I’m going to vote to acquit unless there’s something new that comes up, and I don’t anticipate that happening.”

While many senators hope Schumer and McConnell can strike a deal on rules to govern a trial to give the episode some sheen of bipartisanship, McConnell has a fallback plan. If Republicans can hold 51 of their 53 members in line, they can vote down any motions in the trial to call witnesses that might expose the president to new damning evidence.

McConnell and Schumer made no progress over the holiday break, aides said. The leaders are likely to give some update when they speak on the Senate floor Friday.

As Schumer and McConnell battle over the contours of the trial, Democrats seem to think they have the messaging edge. It’s not just public polling that backs them up.

Already, GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska have expressed discomfort with McConnell’s position — evidence that the Republican Party may not be totally unified heading into a critical month for Trump’s presidency.

If Schumer can win over at least three GOP senators on procedural questions, Democrats could deny McConnell’s bid to move the trial along under party line votes.

The Democratic focus on the trial’s process could change, particularly once it starts. And some senators have reached their breaking point as the White House continues to withhold documents and witnesses.

“The president’s actions are impeachable and worthy of removal, and personally I think it would be kind of disingenuous to not share my opinion given how much information I have in front of me,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said in an interview. But he added that he’s “willing to hear contrary evidence from the president and willing to change my mind.”

Democrats also argue a drip-drip of new information in recent days bolsters their case. The website Just Security published emails Thursday that demonstrate the Pentagon had legal concerns about Trump’s hold on military aid to Ukraine. That followed a New York Times story this week providing new details about the role Mulvaney played in executing the president’s request to freeze the aid.

Potential Democratic swing votes at the trial like Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Doug Jones of Alabama and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have offered little indication for how they might come down on a final vote to convict the president. Sinema has highlighted her role as a juror in the impeachment trial, while Manchin said he has “no clue” where he’ll be.

Jones, who faces a competitive Senate race in Alabama, said over the holiday recess that he’s waiting to see “if the dots get connected” and suggested he’s open to acquitting Trump if that’s where the evidence leads.

Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware, a centrist Democrat, said the Senate trial is Trump’s chance to defend himself after the White House stonewalled the House impeachment proceedings.

“If he’s got a case to make, now’s the time to make it,” Coons said. “I am obligated to keep an open mind. If Secretary [Mike] Pompeo or Mick Mulvaney came in and testified and explained some of what happened, that might help.”

The Senate Democratic push for more witnesses and documents comes after the House voted to impeach Trump in December for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she doesn’t plan to announce House managers or submit the articles of impeachment to the Senate until she knows how the trial will be conducted.

While Senate Republicans have accused Democrats of wanting to redo what they see as a rushed impeachment process in the House, Schumer and his caucus say that it is the Senate’s obligation to obtain documents and additional testimony as part of the trial — and that the White House should want to comply if there’s nothing to hide.

“Chuck Schumer has proposed witnesses with direct knowledge and that’s why I don’t think anyone should object,” said Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), a liberal who is maintaining neutrality. “Especially a president who maintains his innocence.”

Democrats are hoping that moderate Republicans like Collins, Murkowski and perhaps Mitt Romney of Utah and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee will join their calls for witnesses and documents at the outset of the impeachment trial and give them the 51 votes they need to win a motion.

But so far, no Republicans have explicitly backed Democrats’ demands. Collins said in a recent interview with Maine Public Radio that she was “open to witnesses” in the impeachment trial but that it was “premature to decide who should be called until we see the evidence that is presented.”

Senate Republicans have so far leaned toward waiting to decide to bring in witnesses until after the impeachment trial begins and both sides can present their arguments. McConnell regularly notes that’s how Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial went forward.

Should Democrats fail to secure Republican support for additional testimony, they’ll be left with the facts brought forward from the House impeachment proceedings. For many, that is likely to be enough.

“I would be prepared to vote to convict him,” said Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii). “Without any exculpatory evidence that he’s prepared to bring forth, what we have in front of us are the facts and the facts call for him to be impeached.”

Source: politico.com
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