Politics

No deal: Trump’s skills face new questions after scuttling of Afghan talks

President Donald Trump’s boasts about his dealmaking skills may have helped him win in 2016. But after this weekend’s events, he has little to back up those claims on the world stage heading into 2020.

Trump announced Saturday on Twitter that he was canceling ongoing U.S. peace talks with the Afghan Taliban, including scrapping a secret meeting with the Islamist militia’s leaders and the Afghan president at the Camp David presidential retreat outside of Washington. He claimed that it was because the Taliban had been behind a recent attack that killed an American soldier.

The decision has imperiled what was, in the scope of Trump’s presidency, a relatively successful diplomatic effort so far to bring an end to the 18-year war in Afghanistan. It also adds to a growing list of Trump’s negotiating shortfalls — from Iran to North Korea to China — that gives ammunition to Democrats seeking to unseat him. The fact that the meeting could have happened the same week as the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks especially outraged Trump critics.

“This isn’t a game show. These are terrorists,” Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who is vying for the Democratic presidential nomination, said of the Taliban on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “The way he conducts foreign policy, this reminds me exactly of North Korea. He loves the showmanship. He wants to have that moment, but then all the details aren’t done, and then we end up in a worse place on the world stage than we were before.”

Trump’s first defense secretary, Jim Mattis, while not criticizing the president directly, called for caution on Sunday. “When we reduced nuclear weapons with Russia, we talked about trust but verify,” Mattis said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “In this case with this group, I think you want to verify then trust.”

Several people close to Trump asserted that the president could still use the aborted Afghan talks to his advantage as he campaigns with a strategy more focused on getting supporters to vote on Election Day and less about convincing undecideds to back him. One theory is that he could argue that he won’t fall for a bad deal.

“A majority of Americans agree with the president’s belief that it’s time to end this” war, a Trump campaign official said on Sunday.

Before he ran for president, Trump repeatedly said the U.S. should get out of Afghanistan. After taking office, he grudgingly accepted that American troops might need to stay — and in fact ordered a modest surge of several thousand troops in the country. About 14,000 American troops are in Afghanistan now, but the president has remained eager to cut the number down and is likely to talk about his vision during future visits to U.S. regions that are home to many troops, such as Fayetteville, N.C., where he will hold a campaign rally on Monday.

Trump’s advisers aren’t all on the same wavelength when it comes to dealing with the Taliban. National security adviser John Bolton has been highly skeptical of the talks, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has backed the diplomatic efforts so far. The dissonance has caused friction between the two men and their aides.

According to a person familiar with the discussions, Bolton told Trump that he opposed holding talks at Camp David. And during a meeting of top national security officials on Aug. 29, Bolton said he opposed any deal with the militant group and urged the president to simply scale down the U.S. troop presence to around 8,600 — essentially the same level it was at the end of the Obama administration.

Bolton said Trump could cast the remaining troop force as being for counterterrorism, according to the person familiar with the issue, although Defense officials have said the 8,600 figure would include other U.S. troop missions, such as advising regional Afghan military units. In Boltons view, Trump could declare a political victory by reducing the troop number and not signing a deal.

“The president can say, ‘I ended the war in Afghanistan,’” the person said.

A majority of the people at the Aug. 29 meeting, including Pompeo, backed the decision to hold the Camp David gathering, the person said. Trump, as usual, welcomed the opinions of everyone in the room, even when they conflicted.

Aides to Pompeo did not immediately offer comment.

It’s not the first time Trump, a real estate mogul and reality show star who wrote a book called “The Art of the Deal,” has stumbled in his attempts to strike deals that he promised voters in 2016 would give the U.S. an edge.

He has been unable to secure a new, more comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran as he promised he would do. He has met three times with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, but has made little progress in getting Kim to abandon his nuclear arsenal. His trade talks with China are going nowhere. And while his administration did manage to come to a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, it has yet to gain approval in Congress and it’s not drastically different from NAFTA itself.

A former Trump adviser who remains close to the campaign acknowledged on Sunday that inviting the Taliban to Camp David was “stupid,” saying it appeared as if it was a reward. But the former adviser also said that the president was working to resolve the conflict and bring U.S. troops home.

“Trump wants out of there and has to find some way,” said the former adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Pompeo, who appeared on all five main Sunday news shows, confirmed that the peace negotiations with the Taliban were off indefinitely after the militia admitted responsibility for a recent attack in which a U.S. soldier died.

“For the time being, that is absolutely the case,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

“I hope we get ’em started back,” Pompeo said on “Fox News Sunday.” “It will ultimately be up to the Taliban. They have got to demonstrate that they’re prepared to do the things that we asked them to do in the course of those negotiations.”

The peace talks had been moving toward a “framework agreement” intended to lead to a broader peace process involving the U.S.-backed Afghan government. Trump’s cancellation follows nine rounds of talks over the past 10 months in Doha, Qatar, between Taliban representatives and a U.S. negotiating team led by the special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who has now been recalled to Washington.

“We’ve been working on this problem set for a number of months now, and frankly had made real progress with the Government of National Unity, President [Ashraf] Ghani, as well as the Taliban,” Pompeo said on NBC.

“We can never permit terror to strike again from Afghanistan here into the United States,” he said. “Our negotiations have been aimed at achieving each of those objectives while reducing violence and getting the Afghans for the first time … to actually sit at the table and talk about the path forward in a more peaceful way.”

It’s still not entirely clear whether Trump’s stated reason for calling off the talks — the Taliban attack — is really what fueled the cancellation. The Taliban have long resisted the idea of a cease-fire and have been behind numerous recent attacks. In addition, there were reports that the U.S. might have pulled the plug because of Ghani’s unhappiness with the talks so far. The coming anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks also may have made Trump think twice.

The U.S. invaded Afghanistan in 2001, overthrowing the Taliban government. The Taliban had been hosting Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaida chief and mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Ghani’s national security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, whom the U.S. had largely cut out of its discussions of the deal with the Afghan government over his past criticism of the talks, applauded the cancellation.

 The Afghan government “welcomes President Trump’s decision to call off talks with the Taliban, due to their increased and emboldened acts of terror against Afghans and foreigners, in the midst of talks,” Mohib said in a statement, adding: “A cease-fire followed by direct talks with the elected Afghan government is the only way forward toward meaningful and sustainable peace.”A Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, said in a statement that the group’s war against foreign troops would continue, and called the cancellation evidence that the U.S. administration was “anti-peace.”

Ned Price, a former top Obama administration official now working with Democratic campaigns, cautioned that Trump’s cancellation of the talks could be — at least in the president’s mind — an attempt to gain leverage. He pointed out that Trump temporarily called off his first summit with North Korea’s Kim before agreeing to meet.

“I don’t think we can be sure that this isn’t just a negotiating tactic,” Price said, “because I think the lure of the deal is always going to be paramount in Trump’s mind.”

But a former U.S. defense official with recent Afghanistan experience suggested that the Trump administration overestimated the degree of leverage it might gain over the Taliban with the public cancellation.

“It’s the predictable fallout from an unpredicted move,” the former official said. “It all contributes to a Taliban narrative that we can’t be trusted. On the bright side, though, the vast majority of concessions thus far have been on our side. Maybe this signals a change?”

Jonathan Schroden, an Afghanistan expert at CNA, a government-funded think tank, said Pompeo’s remarks were “evidence that Trump continues to see himself as the ‘deal-maker in chief’ — that only he personally could get the deal across the finish line by sitting down with the Taliban and Ghani directly, despite the risks.”

That’s despite the risk that such high-profile talks on U.S. soil could have bolstered the profiles and credibility of the Taliban leaders who would have attended.

Trump has now “raised the stakes for continuing the talks,” Schroden added. “If only he can conclude the deal and he prefers to do so face-to-face, what will it take to now get back to that situation? Seems like Khalilzad has a lot more work cut out for him” if negotiations do continue.

The suspension of the talks also raises the question of whether Trump might order a partial withdrawal even without an agreement with the Taliban. Such a move, however, could face bipartisan backlash in Washington, where many lawmakers are worried about the Taliban regaining power in Afghanistan and allowing it once again to become a safe haven for terrorist groups.

All of which leaves the president’s critics questioning his approach and wondering how they can use it to their advantage in the next election.

“You go across the board and you see that the dealmaker-in-chief really isn’t wearing any clothes,” Price said.

Bianca Quilantan and David Cohen contributed to this report.

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Source: politico.com

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