Ursula von der Leyen’s disaster management

To succeed, it is clear von der Leyen and her team will have to improve on their uneven performance of recent weeks, including a series of missteps, the most glaring of which was the leak of an outline of a €2 trillion economic revival plan before national leaders had even seen it.

That blunder prompted a direct warning from German Chancellor Angela Merkel, von der Leyen’s mentor, who intervened during Thursday’s European Council videoconference to confirm May 6 was the target date for the budget plan, and then told the Commission president: „Don’t forget to talk to us.“

In facing the crisis so far, von der Leyen has sometimes had no choice but to adjust the Commission to the inevitable, like devising guidelines for border closures that were already being imposed and that she and her team were powerless to stop. Similarly, she announced with great fanfare the waiver of EU debt and borrowing limits that she had no chance of holding up given the giant economic shock.

At other times, von der Leyen’s own gaffes in media interviews, some given in German to outlets in her home country, have set off uproar and drawn rebukes even from close allies — a sign that after just four and a half months in office she is still not accustomed to the weight her words carry across the Continent.

Her dismissal in German of corona bonds, a potential financing mechanism for economic recovery, as a “slogan” led to an outcry in Italy — the EU country with the most coronavirus deaths — and she quickly backtracked after European Parliament President David Sassoli said a “clarification” was in order.

And her apparent preoccupation with public relations, including paying a private consulting firm for social media advice out of her own pocket, hasn’t prevented some embarrassing glitches such as a premature tweet about a waiver of EU borrowing rules — an announcement likely to move financial markets —  that was posted, quickly deleted, and then republished once markets had closed.

Within the Berlaymont, the now largely vacated Commission headquarters where the president lives beside her 13th floor office in a former washroom converted to a bedroom, a surprise op-ed by two commissioners, Thierry Breton of France and Paolo Gentiloni of Italy, uncoordinated with her overall message, was viewed as just the most public evidence that von der Leyen lacks firm control over her top team.

Even more problematic have been times when the Commission’s emergency response efforts have been tripped up, especially by lack of buy-in from national governments.

The unveiling of a strategy for exiting coronavirus containment measures was announced and then abruptly canceled within hours after an outcry from EU countries, who complained that it was premature — only for some capitals to roll out their own plans before the Commission finally published its roadmap.

That episode highlighted how the one big hole in von der Leyen’s résumé — no prior experience as a head of state or government — has proven to be a serious liability as national leaders repeatedly put their own domestic interests first and brushed off Commission calls for EU solidarity. That has left the Commission struggling to maintain its relevance and grasping to restore a sense of order and control.

Some critics say von der Leyen is overly deferential to national leaders — who made her their surprise pick to lead the Commission last July — and too cautious about flexing the Commission’s executive muscle and exploiting the political platform that comes with the job, both of which have proven formidable in the hands of some predecessors.

“Her major strength in this crisis has been her knowledge of Europe, her multilingual and medical skills,” said a former senior European official with decades of experience in the upper echelons of the EU. “But she’s much too wary of not bypassing EU competence, and remaining in the legal framework.”

“Jacques Delors didn’t hesitate to confront the Council when it was needed, and [Mario] Draghi did the same with the ECB,” the former official said, comparing von der Leyen to the French statesman who was Commission president from 1985 to 1995, and to the then-European Central Bank president who helped steer the EU through the sovereign debt crisis.

Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister and now prominent liberal member of the European Parliament, openly accused von der Leyen of being too timid in coming forward with an economic plan.

„My question is: What is the European Commission waiting for?“ Verhofstadt thundered in a speech to the European Parliament earlier this month, in which he made clear his target was the president herself.

„You have the right of initiative; take your responsibility and come forward,“ Verhofstadt said, adding: „It’s a historical moment for the European Commission.“

The former senior European official and others said von der Leyen has not been creative enough in proposing new solutions that might propel the EU to a leadership position in responding to the crisis.

“She has relied on existing procedures — Stability Pact, state aid — and made some big blunders, including on her comments about confining people over 70,” the former official said, referring to an interview in the German newspaper Bild in which von der Leyen suggested the elderly might need to spend longer than others in lockdown. “That caused some damage.”

Several officials said that von der Leyen had at times shown poor reflexes, such as when she remained fixated on a dispute with Turkey over asylum seekers along the Greek border even as the coronavirus emergency exploded in northern Italy.

The frustration with von der Leyen also crosses party boundaries.

“I would like the Commission to play a more proactive role,“ Joachim Schuster, a socialist member of the European Parliament from Germany, said of efforts to craft an economic recovery plan.

Schuster recalled the signature economic initiative touted by von der Leyen’s predecessor Jean-Claude Juncker from virtually the start of his term until his last day. „If you compare it with Juncker’s way of pushing ahead with his investment plan at the time — even against the opposition of EU countries, and yet with some success,“ Schuster said, „then I would also like to see more of this commitment.“

The Commission, Schuster said, „should push EU countries forward, because after all it cannot just propose what is the minimum consensus among governments.“

To pull Europe’s economy out of its greatest slump since the Great Depression, von der Leyen has proposed getting countries to raise the amounts they are allowed to contribute to the long-term budget, the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The Commission would then use this extra headroom to put up loan guarantees in order to raise cash from the markets for the recovery effort.

The idea is to circumvent the rancorous argument between northern countries like Germany and the Netherlands that have long opposed joint debt instruments, and southern countries like Italy and Portugal that have long insisted on broader, community-wide economic support.

But skeptics warn that rather than the MFF providing the key to create the recovery fund, the debate over the economic response could further delay the new budget, and that national leaders, even after assigning the Commission with the task, could balk at a deal. Big questions remain, for example, over whether enough money can be raised and whether it should be distributed as loans or grants.

One former national minister and expert on EU affairs also said von der Leyen should find a model in Delors and push the capitals harder.

”Von der Leyen should play much more the ‘supra partes’ role, as Delors did it,” the ex-minister said. “And this means: relentlessly come up with proposals, insist, remind people about principles, and treaty obligations, provide arguments for those who are reluctant, those who hesitate, those who lie, the egocentrics of all types.”

Delors, who was the last EU chief to be appointed without having served as a head of government, had the advantage of a merciless chief of staff, Pascal Lamy, who earned the nickname Beast of the Berlaymont. Von der Leyen, however, has been unable to replicate that model in large part because of the heavy-handedness of Martin Selmayr, who served as the top aide to Juncker.

EU officials, especially members of the European Parliament, made clear that they wanted Selmayr out as Commission secretary-general, and von der Leyen readily complied. But she has no aide with the stature of Lamy or Selmayr. Ironically, even some of Selmayr’s toughest critics now admit to missing his ruthless discipline and his total command over the levers of the EU machine.

Supporters of von der Leyen insist that she is not getting nearly enough credit for keeping the ship steady amid such unprecedented turbulence so early in her tenure — especially compared to the handling of the crisis by other world leaders including President Donald Trump, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Russian President Vladimir Putin. They note that it is von der Leyen, and not any of these blustery strongmen, who is organizing an international pledging event to help finance a coronavirus vaccine.

Von der Leyen’s backers said that she has done the very best that could be expected under the circumstances and that national leaders, under pressure at home, were adopting the easy, if craven, strategy of taking credit for everything that goes well while criticizing Brussels for any mistakes.

Von der Leyen and her advisers declined to comment on-record for this article.

A senior Commission official argued the tumultuous early weeks of the crisis proved von der Leyen could operate and get results under extreme pressure — including putting the budget back on track after EU leaders failed to deliver a deal in February.

“Before the crisis, the MFF negotiations had failed. Now thanks to the work of the Commission everything is moving towards a new and much stronger MFF,” the official said.

Similarly, the official said von der Leyen’s predecessors never healed the wounds of the eurozone crisis that divide North and South. “It’s no secret that some member states are still caught in an old battle,” the official said. “Thanks to the Commission’s recent proposal for a new MFF at the heart of an EU Recovery Plan, there is now a way out and the chance to bridge these deep differences.”

The official also said that, after EU members initially tried to pursue narrow self-interest in response to the crisis, the Commission calmed the situation and restored cooperation on everything from border measures to the procurement of medical equipment.

In all, the official said, „more than 140 measures on different fields were put in place to mitigate the fallout of the corona crisis for Europe. The fact that all these measures were accepted by the Council required many personal confidential talks between the president and the heads of state and government.”

As for the new budget plan and recovery fund, the official said that the Council putting the matter in the Commission’s hands was a show of confidence.

Nathalie Loiseau, a former EU affairs minister of France who is now a member of the European Parliament, said von der Leyen is proving to be a serious, hard-working operator.

“Von der Leyen progresses at her own pace, brick by brick, step by step, she makes some errors and recognizes them, that’s no so bad,“ said Loiseau.

„She likes to work with a close and limited circle of people, and sometimes does not bind others into their thinking, that can ruffle many feathers. But it is her character. She is German. She is studious. She doesn’t make light-hearted jokes,“ she added.

„There isn’t much grandstanding or political posturing. It’s not Juncker, It can annoy some of the Commission’s civil servants. But is it a flaw? She’s someone who builds a project, doesn’t deviate from the path she chose, doesn’t go off the rails, and that’s fundamentally her role.“

In some capitals, von der Leyen still has support of leaders, most importantly perhaps Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, who backed her for the job.

A French official, asked about von der Leyen’s performance, said not everything was „as we might want it to be in a dream“ but the Commission’s agenda „is still the right one.”

The official said von der Leyen had understood „the extent of the crisis“ and noted she was making efforts to speak to French media.

Daniel Caspary, head of the German EPP delegation in the European Parliament and a close ally of Merkel, also defended von der Leyen, “I have the impression that she listens well and that you can work well with her,“ Caspary said. „In Berlin, some people said: You can’t get access to her, she doesn’t listen. I can’t confirm that at all.“

Speaking of von der Leyen’s gaffes in interviews, such as her suggestion that summer vacations might need to be canceled, which angered countries heavily reliant on tourism, Caspary said: “Anyone who is very active sometimes says something controversial, or something that can be misunderstood.“

But officials in Brussels who were skeptical about von der Leyen’s leadership even before the crisis said they are now even more worried. Some veteran Commission officials told POLITICO they had turned down promotions because they did not want to take on the responsibility of propping up a weak Commission.

Other officials said the crisis had only presented more difficult challenges for a Commission that had already gotten off to a slow start — unable to deploy sufficient staffing and resources even for some of its top priorities, like the European Green Deal.

One former adviser to senior EU politicians said that members of the European Council had chosen von der Leyen with the aim of weakening the Commission and were now paying the price.

Not only did the heads of state and government refuse to install someone who had served in their own ranks, but they also left von der Leyen to work with senior officials whose own aspirations were thwarted in the leadership contest.

The former adviser described von der Leyen as “the wrong person, in the wrong role at the wrong time, and oblivious to the task at hand, and how to arm-wrestle the member states. And her executive vice presidents are watching from the sidelines, licking their own egos, waiting for her to slip and fall.”

“Von der Leyen is a prisoner in the convent, less Mother Superior than a novice nun questioning her European faith,” the former adviser said, adding that living in the Berlaymont might not help: “Get out and get fresh air, and fresh comms advice.”

Others said that the European Council had only itself to blame, and that von der Leyen was part of a larger leadership package, along with Sassoli and European Council President Charles Michel, that has not yet found its footing — and may never do so given political divisions.

Where all three of the main EU institutions — Commission, Council and Parliament — were previously headed by center-right conservatives from the European People’s Party (EPP), the roles are now equally divided, with von der Leyen from the EPP, Michel a liberal and Sassoli a social democrat.

The tension between the parties plays out constantly behind the scenes, and poses yet a further test for von der Leyen who must decide to what extent Breton, who is backed by the liberals, Gentiloni, a social democrat, and Valdis Dombrovskis, a conservative who is the executive vice president in charge of economic affairs, will control aspects of the recovery effort.

In a letter to von der Leyen this month, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte urged her to do better. „I hear ideas not worthy of Europe,” he wrote, adding, “It is time to show more ambition, more unity and more courage“.

Conte and other officials have been giving repeated interviews in the German media in recent days, continuing a war of words that started when von der Leyen had dismissed corona bonds, which Italy supports, as a “slogan” in an interview with DPA, the German news agency.

One populist member of the European Parliament privately admitted to missing Juncker.

“She is not at all up to the task,” the MEP said of von der Leyen. “She made a solemn speech at the Parliament after the crisis broke out, and told us that it would be ‘goodwill and love’ that would save us from the coronavirus, and two days earlier she showed the world how to wash her hands. It’s like she is acting in ‘Little House on the Prairie.’ Juncker had more of a political vision.“

A more mainstream, influential MEP, said the Commission president was isolated, even from members of her own political group but takes a close interest in her public image.

“Von der Leyen doesn’t have any ties with anyone,” the MEP said. “It was the same in Berlin. She is not particularly seeking contact. She doesn’t have any particular tie with the EPP. She is concerned about communication. If you speak badly about her then she will call you right away.”

The MEP added, “Yes, people do miss Selmayr. He was detested, but at least he knew how to impose himself. Now, we don’t really know what is going on.”

As the nostalgia for Selmayr shows, politics is a fickle business. Some von der Leyen supporters suggested that supposedly „woke“ EU officials who backed calls for gender parity and endorsed the first woman president are now criticizing her for not having the faux swagger of less competent male predecessors.

Some also cautioned that it would be a mistake to bet against the woman tending to the EU round-the-clock. If the patient recovers well, the doctor will get the credit.

Lili Bayer, Jakob Hanke, Rym Momtaz, Paola Tamma, Hans von der Burchard and Sarah Wheaton contributed reporting. 

Source: politico.com
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