Garcia, a former Naval aviator, currently leads Smith, 56 percent to 44 percent, with an unknown number of ballots left to be counted. The Associated Press has not yet called the race, which was conducted primarily via mail balloting.
His victory represents the first time in 22 years that California Republicans have captured a congressional seat from Democrats.
Smith will get a second chance at Garcia in November — the same two candidates in the runoff also qualified for the general election — but Garcia’s victory will no doubt boost his candidacy, drawing donors and national attention, though the final margin is still in doubt.
The party has hailed him as a top recruit with deep ties to the district. He was nominated for the Naval Academy by the district’s former congressman, Republican Buck McKeon, and then returned to the district to work for the defense contractor Raytheon.
Republicans are already casting his win as the beginning of a reversal of the suburban drubbing they suffered last cycle, when a 40-seat Democratic wave flipped control of the chamber after eight years of Republican dominance.
„Congratulations to Congressman-elect Mike Garcia for defying all of the odds and obstacles thrown in his path to decisively win,“ NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer of Minnesota said in a statement.
Democrats are optimistic that Smith will be able to capitalize on the district’s antipathy to President Donald Trump in November when the presidential election is on the ballot. Trump remains unpopular in the district, which he lost by 7 points to Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Smith and her allies feel they will have an easier time tying Garcia to Trump and forcing him to take more specific positions, instead of relying so heavily on his biography.
„I look forward to having a vigorous debate about the issues in the upcoming November 2020 election, from health care access to job creation, aid for working families, investments in local classrooms to wildfire protection, women’s rights and more in the months ahead,“ Smith said in her statement.
Trump has endorsed Garcia and repeatedly weighed into the race on Twitter, excoriating the last-minute opening of an in-person voting center in a Democratic-leaning part of the district.
Privately, Democrats said they fell short in the race because the electorate skewed older and whiter and because of the shadow of Hill’s resignation. Hill, who was first elected in 2018, served less than a year and left Congress after admitting to an inappropriate sexual relationship with a campaign staffer.
But the party is also hoping to defend incumbents in districts with much more challenging demographics this November, when much of the country may also be voting by mail.
National Democrats’ game plan is to focus the narrative more squarely on health care and take better advantage of Trump’s unpopularity.
„We’re confident that voters will reject Mike Garcia’s attacks on their health care, and that Democrats will retake this seat in November,” DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos of Illinois said in a statement.
Source: politico.com
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