Here’s a state-by-state look at the March 10 map:
Idaho hasn’t received much love from the Democratic presidential field — few have visited the rock-ribbed Republican state in 2020 and none attended the state Democratic Party’s signature event, the Frank and Bethine Church Gala, last weekend. Pete Buttigieg was originally scheduled to be the keynote speaker before dropping out of the race. He was replaced by Elizabeth Warren, but she then dropped out. The remaining campaigns sent video greetings and surrogates in their stead.
There’s been little public polling this year and very little ad spending by either candidate — Joe Biden hasn’t spent anything at all here. But Bernie Sanders is thought to have a clear advantage after dominating the caucuses in 2016 and as the lone advertiser. He’s also strong in Boise, the capital and the biggest city in the state. Biden is counting on post-Super Tuesday momentum and the support of more than 30 lawmakers.
Due to its large delegate haul and diverse population, Michigan looms larger than any other state Tuesday. Bernie Sanders is banking on a repeat of his 2016 upset victory here against Hillary Clinton to resurrect his campaign, but a big win for Joe Biden would put him on a glide path to the nomination.
Sanders ran well in rural Michigan and won 73 of the state’s 83 counties in 2016. He has strong support among Arab Americans and young voters, who joined a crowd of over 10,000 that rallied for him on the campus of the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor on Sunday. Yet, his struggles with African Americans and suburban women — groups expected to turn out in large numbers, especially in populous southeastern Michigan — could sound the death knell for him.
Biden maintains a double-digit lead over Sanders in each of the last three post-Super Tuesday polls out of Michigan. But both campaigns are well aware that polling also showed Sanders losing big in 2016 just prior to his victory.
In the wake of Joe Biden’s runaway victories across the South, Mississippi is expected to deliver one more blowout win. In 2016, according to exit polls, the Democratic electorate was 71 percent African American — one of Biden’s strongest groups.
Rep. Bennie Thompson endorsed Biden on Thursday, adding the support of a prominent black validator in the state and rounding out his Congressional Black Caucus endorsements to a total of 31.
Sanders track record here isn’t promising. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated him 83 percent to 17 percent. African American women cast nearly half the vote; Sanders lost them 90-10. And Sanders, who lacks broad support among black Democrats, didn’t help his cause here when he scrapped a Friday campaign event in Jackson to concentrate on beefing up his on-the-ground efforts in Michigan.
In his place, several of the Vermont senator’s black surrogates — including Jackson Mayor Chokwe Antar Lumumba and actor Danny Glover — stumped for him over the weekend, leaning in to his record of voting against the 1994 Crime Bill and his “Thurgood Marshall plan” for public education, which combats racial discrimination in schools.
Bernie Sanders lost this state by a slim margin in 2016 — less than 2,000 votes.
To reverse that outcome, Sanders will have to do better among African-Americans, who voted for Hillary Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin. That result was a promising sign for Joe Biden, who has relied on African-American support to carry him to victory elsewhere and expects to lean on his margins in Kansas City and on the other side of the state in St. Louis and St. Louis County.
Biden, who has increased his advertising presence in the past week across the March 10 map, is the highest spender here, pouring over $850,000 into TV and digital ads. He has a near 20-point lead over Sanders, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average and boasts endorsements from more than 70 statewide current and former elected officials.
On the eve of the election, both Biden and Sanders increased their campaign presence in the state. On Monday, Sanders held a Get Out the Vote rally in Kansas City and Jill Biden, the wife of the former vice president, hosted events across the state all day.
North Dakotans will vote in what’s called a “firehouse caucus“ this year, rather than a traditional caucus as in 2016.
The contest — essentially a primary run by the party, rather than state election officials — will take place at 14 caucus sites across the state and allows caucus-goers to cast a single ballot and leave, instead of requiring them to wait around for multiple rounds of voting. Voters can also mail in their ballots. The change in format is designed to increase turnout.
Joe Biden has won endorsements from the handful of Democrats elected to statewide office in recent decades. Former Sens. Heidi Heitkamp, Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad, as well as former Congressman Earl Pomeroy, all threw their support behind the former vice president the weekend before the state will vote.
Bernie Sanders has the advantage of being the sole advertiser to go up on the air in the state, having spent over $100,000 on TV and radio ads. He also boasts the support of Ruth Buffalo, the first Native American woman elected to the state legislature.
It’s long been assumed that Bernie Sanders is the clear favorite in the deep-blue state of Washington. He boasts a strong state staff operation, endorsements from prominent lawmakers like Rep. Pramila Jayapal and is the only remaining candidate buying TV ads there. He also crushed Hillary Clinton here in the state’s 2016 caucuses by nearly 50 points.
But Joe Biden, riding Super Tuesday momentum, has rapidly closed in on Sanders’ lead. Two recent polls from King5 News and Data for Progress show the former vice president narrowly edging out Sanders — though within the margin of error.
Amid coronavirus concerns, neither campaign has been able to lean heavily on grassroots campaigning in Washington. It’s unlikely to tamp down turnout, however: Washington is a vote-by-mail state. But that also means results may take some time to come in — votes are expected to take days to tally.
Source: politico.com
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