Without the political desire or public pressure to reimpose shutdown measures, public health experts worry these recent spikes could signal a steady burn of coronavirus infections through the summer, even as previously hard-hit areas like New York and New Jersey have gotten their outbreaks under control. They warn states could ultimately be forced to impose even harsher mitigation measures — like delaying school reopenings or implementing broader shutdowns — should infections spiral out of control.
“We always knew that once we returned back to the community, we had to do it carefully and that there would have to be a pause when we saw increases,” said Georges Benjamin, the executive director of the American Public Health Association. “That should always have been understood.”
Most states began reopening their economies before meeting the White House’s nonbinding guidelines, which recommended a sustained decrease in cases and adequate testing, among other metrics. When the guidelines were released in April, infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci suggested some states may need to reimpose restrictions if the virus rebounded.
Hutchinson of Arkansas told reporters Wednesday that he doesn’t believe the White House guidelines are “sacrosanct”, and he contends more expansive testing — and not lifted restrictions on churches and businesses — is responsible for higher case counts. But many public health experts say more testing can’t fully explain rising infection numbers, since hospitalizations are also increasing and a higher percentage of people are testing positive in many of those places.
It’s too soon to know if nationwide protests over police brutality in recent weeks will send case counts even higher, as public health officials fear. Though there already have been some reported cases among protesters, officials expect any increases from these demonstrations would begin appearing in the next week or two, since it can take up to two weeks before virus symptoms appear.
Still, some public health experts say they haven’t been as worried by spiking case counts. Ali Mokdad, a health metrics expert at the University of Washington, said it’s fine for governors to continue reopening as long as their states can do the testing, tracing and quarantining of infected patients.
“In general, we are heading in the right direction,” he said.
In Arkansas, infections jumped by one third in a week and hospitalizations have gone up nearly 90 percent since Memorial Day. Democratic state Sen. Greg Leding argues the state’s early reopening sent the message to residents that the worst of the pandemic had passed.
“People started taking fewer precautions and not being as careful — whether they were going to a restaurant or just hanging out with friends,” he said. “There was such a lack of clear messaging around the reopening and a lot of people took it to mean that everything was back to normal, when that was absolutely not the case.”
Though Hutchinson said earlier this week that his administration was “wrestling” with whether to delay the next phase of reopening, he announced Wednesday it would move ahead.
“Americans are on the move,” he said. “They can’t be tied down and they can’t be restrained. They don’t want the government telling them what to do.”
Some governors have expressed frustration that constituents aren’t following public health recommendations on physical distancing and masks, but they remain insistent they aren’t looking to shut down their states.
Source: politico.com
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