After months of seeing their hold on the Senate slip, Republicans are moving to avoid a potential disaster in next month’s Kansas primary that could put another conservative seat in play.
The GOP is aiming to thwart the candidacy of Kris Kobach, the controversial former secretary of state, by rallying behind Rep. Roger Marshall. Sen. Pat Roberts, who is retiring and had pledged to remain neutral in the primary, reversed course and endorsed Marshall this week as his preferred successor. A day later, a super PAC aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell booked $1.2 million on TV to run positive ads boosting Marshall between now and the primary.
The late-stage effort comes as most Republicans believe Marshall has a lead in the polls and an advantage in the crowded, 11-candidate race — but not an insurmountable one. Kobach, who lost the gubernatorial race in 2018, has struggled to raise money or gain traction in recent months. But GOP alarm grew after a super PAC with links to Democrats last week began a $3 million, meddling ad campaign aimed at boosting Kobach and damaging Marshall.
Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, is an unlikely battleground. But President Donald Trump’s slide in the polls and a potential Kobach nomination would give Democrats their clearest shot at a seat there in decades — all at a time when Republicans are increasingly concerned about the security of their three-seat majority in the chamber.
“A Kobach victory would definitely put the Republican majority in jeopardy because it would add another state that would need serious resources,” Scott Reed, the chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview. He added that a victory for Marshall in the primary would spare the party money better spent in races like North Carolina, Maine or Iowa, among others.
“There’s plenty of map out there, and we sure don’t want to be wasting time in Kansas in September and October,” Reed said.
For both parties, the spending has the potential to both influence the primary and also set the stage for the general election. Republicans are concerned about a Kobach nomination but say they are also worried that the Democratic spending could hurt Marshall’s image at the outset of the fall campaign if he does win the primary.
Steven Law, president of Senate Leadership Fund, said in a statement that he was seeking to boost Marshall in a general election.
"The latest ad from [Chuck] Schumer’s Kansas pop-up PAC shows that they want to start the general election early by going after Marshall, and we aren’t going to let them get the jump on us," said Law, a former longtime McConnell aide who also ran the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
The SLF spending is just part of the full array of TV ads in the primary. Sunflower State, the Democratic-linked group — which will not have to reveal the source of its funding until after the Aug. 4 primary — has been the largest spender, with more than $3 million already spent or on the books between now and the primary, according to data from Advertising Analytics.
A second super PAC — which is run by a Republican operative and also will not file financial reports until after the primary — is running ads attacking Kobach, specifically in an effort to weaken his image. That group will spend more than $2 million and ran an ad calling out the apparent Democratic meddling in an effort to blunt its impact on the race.
Bob Hamilton, a conservative businessman who is self-funding much of his campaign, will air more than $2 million worth of TV ads, many of them focused on his message as an outsider and his well-known image from running a plumbing business. Marshall has spent half of what Hamilton has — but it’s still nearly six times what the cash-poor Kobach has spent.
The Chamber of Commerce has focused its pro-Marshall advertising in Johnson County, aimed at Kansas City suburbs where Marshall, who represents a sprawling district on the other side the state, needs to bank votes but isn’t well-known.
Kobach denounced the new advertising from SLF in an emailed statement, objecting to McConnell’s allies getting involved in the primary, even though their ads are going to be pro-Marshall and not attacks against him.
"We’ve heard this story before. Whenever a conservative is in the lead in a Republican Senate primary, McConnell jumps in to support the moderate opponent,” Kobach said in the statement. “McConnell wants a yes man in the Senate. All of the polling shows that whoever wins this primary wins the general election by about the same amount. McConnell should stay out of it and let Republican voters in Kansas make up their own minds.”
Kobach also called the SLF spending a “really poor use of Republican contributors’ money,” saying it would be better spent in places like Colorado, Arizona or Iowa where GOP incumbents are in competitive races.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, meanwhile, denounced Kobach last year and remains opposed to him, but has not endorsed or spent resources in the race. President Donald Trump has also not endorsed a candidate.
Eric Pahls, a spokesman for Marshall’s campaign, bashed Kobach for criticizing the Republican spending despite not commenting last week in news reports about the ads from the Democratic-linked group.
“[Democratic] Leader Chuck Schumer has spent millions to boost the Kobach campaign, and when asked about it, Kris is silent,” Pahls said. “A Republican group spends money in the Republican primary, and Kris is throwing a tantrum. That’s Kris Kobach in a nutshell.”
Hamilton’s campaign also criticized the super PAC spending. "Washington politicians endorse a Washington politician, no surprise," said Casey Burns, a spokeswoman for his campaign.
It’s unclear precisely where the race stands at this point. Public polling has been sparse, and while most Republicans believe Marshall has a lead, the advertising flurry in the closing days may have scrambled things right as voters are paying closest attention. At least five outside groups and four campaigns will be running ads in the next week, according to Advertising Analytics.
Democrats, meanwhile, have rallied behind state Sen. Barbara Bollier, a physician and former Republican who switched parties recently and has consistently outraised her potential Republican opponents. Bollier has been running a series of positive TV ads and spent more than $800,000 while the GOP primary rages.
National Republicans did not spend months boosting Marshall, despite their immediate denunciation of Kobach’s campaign more than a year ago. His low fundraising frustrated some party operatives, and McConnell and others spent months wooing Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the former Kansas congressman who ultimately declined to run. Still, Marshall consolidated support among influential Kansans, including former Sen. Bob Dole, the Kansas Farm Bureau and the anti-abortion group Kansans for Life.
Reed, the Chamber of Commerce strategist, called the Dole and Roberts endorsements a “one-two punch” and said the campaign is “finishing on a high.”
David Kensinger, a veteran Republican operative in Kansas, said the appearance of Democratic meddling clarified the stakes of the primary, though he said he would feel more secure about defeating Kobach were it not such a crowded primary field.
“Democrats are spending more to nominate Kris Kobach than Republicans are,” Kensinger said.
Source: politico.com
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